The world a much, much more dangerous place to live in, in 2011

In the first quarter of 2010, January/February/March, Crisis Watch, reported there were 8 countries where conflict situations had deteriorated.

In the first quarter of 2011. January/February/March, Crisis Watch, reported there were 23 countries where conflict situations had deteriorated an increase of 187%

Continuing Conflicts that Create Refugees - March 2011

10 actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in March 2011, according to the latest issue of the International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin CrisisWatch.

Deteriorated Situations: Bahrain, Benin, Bosnia, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Libya, Nigeria, Syria, Yemen

Download the full report: cw92.pdf

Bahrain: Violence flared mid-month in new security crackdown on ongoing anti-govt protests, despite govt late-Feb, early- March commitments to dialogue, reform. 2 killed, hundreds injured 15 March during clashes with security forces; at least 3 killed 16 March as troops, tanks cleared protesters' camp in Pearl Square in capital Manama. Hundreds of cyber activists arrested late month. King Hamad 15 March declared 3-month state of emergency; 1,500 Saudi, UAE troops, police 14 March entered Bahrain to help maintain order. Iran, opposition denounced moves by Sunni govt against mainly Shia protesters. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) 21 March said Iranian interference would not be tolerated.

Benin: ECOWAS expressed "deep concern" over escalating tensions following 13 March presidential election. Opposition candidate Adrien Houngbedji rejected preliminary results announced 18 March, claiming fraud; 21 March declared himself winner of poll. Police 24 March forcibly dispersed opposition protestors in economic capital Cotonou who were rejecting preliminary results. Constitutional Court 30 March declared incumbent Thomas Boni Yayi winner of election with 53% of vote, despite attempts by opposition groups to prevent announcement of results.

Bosnia: Struggle for control of state and entity govts continued. After over 5 months of failed coalition-building talks, and boycott of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) upper house by 2 largest Croat parties HDZ and rival HDZ 1990, parliament finally met 17 March. Amid accusations of illegality of process, 2 largest FBiH parties, predominantly Bosniak Social Democrat (SDP) and Party for Democratic Action (SDA), joined by small Croat parties, elected Croat Party of Right (HSP) leader ?ivko Budimir as FBiH President, and SDP general secretary Nermin Nik?i? PM. Election commission 24 March ruled election of FBiH president, VP illegal.

Burkina: Faso Army unrest, dissatisfaction emerged 23 March as soldiers in capital Ougadougou protested arrest of 5 colleagues; some 12 people injured during 3 hour gun-fire. In separate incident soldiers 28 March blockaded eastern town Fada N'Gourma with tanks, 29 March fired rocket at courthouse. Head of armed forces 30 March imposed nationwide curfew; President Compaore same day offered to meet army officers to discuss grievances.

Côte d'Ivoire: Month saw slide into civil war as fighting intensified in Abidjan between forces loyal to incumbent President Gbagbo and those allied to president-elect Alassane Ouattara; also reports of sexual violence, summary executions, individuals burnt alive and heavy fighting across country. Gbagbo spokesman 29 March called for immediate ceasefire after pro-Ouattara rebels made rapid gains same day in east and west; rebels 30 March seized official capital Yamoussoukro, major cocoa port San Pedro. Gbagbo army chief defected same day. Pro-Ouattara rebels 31 March reached Abidjan, attacked Gbagbo's presidential residence, seized state-owned television station. Heavy fighting also spread to at least 5 Abidjan districts over month. Gbagbo forces 3 March gunned down 7 women protesters, 17 March shelled market area in Abobo district, killing 25 civilians.

Libya: Clashes between rebel movement and security forces escalated into civil war, prompting international military action. Early month counter-offensive by pro-Qaddafi forces reversed previous rebel gains; govt forces 10-14 March recaptured several key towns, including Ras Lanuf, Zawiya, Brega. Qaddafi's son Saif al-Islam 10 March pledged to crush rebellion. Following 12 March call for intervention by Arab League, UNSC 17 March approved no-fly zone, authorised use of "all necessary measures" to protect civilians, whilst prohibiting foreign occupation. International coalition led by UK, U.S., France 19 March began missile, air strikes against military installations, aircraft; also targeted govt forces attacking Benghazi and other rebel-held towns.

Nigeria: Preparations for April general elections continued amid rise in politically-motivated communal and sectarian violence threatening peaceful and credible poll. At least 7 feared dead after 28 March clashes between rival supporters of ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) in Nembe, Bayelsa state. Authorities said more than 12 killed, 50 injured 22 March in fight between PDP and opposition Action Congress supporters during political rally in Uyo, Akwa Ibon state in South. Dozens injured, at least 5 reportedly killed during 21 March political rally of General Buhari's Congress for Progressive Change in Jos, Plateau state. Boko Haram 13 March killed Maiduguri cleric famous in Borno state for anti-radicalisation sermons, also suspected of killing All Nigerian People's Party youth leader in Maiduguri 26 March. 2 unidentified men killed 20 March in Jos when bomb they were transporting detonated prematurely.

Syria: Fears of further unrest after anti-regime protests spread across country over month, including to Damascus, from southern city Daraa, where at least 55 reported killed by security forces since 18 March. Dozens reported killed in other cities in violent crackdown by security forces; army deployed 27 March after 12 reportedly killed in northwestern port Latakia. In first public address since beginning of unrest, President Assad 30 March blamed foreign conspiracy; remarks seen as inflammatory. Assad 26 March reportedly released political prisoners, including lawyer Diana Jawabra; 31 March ordered study on replacing emergency laws, probe into civilian deaths. Cabinet resigned 29 March in face of protests. UNSG Ban 26 March phoned Assad to urge "maximum restraint", U.S. condemned govt "repression".

Yemen: Over 90 protesters killed as nationwide anti-regime protests continued for seventh week; fears of possible outbreak of civil war, but hopes remain for possible reconciliation and formation of national unity govt. Direct talks between president and opposition over govt transition stalled 27 March, but indirect talks continue. Opposition demanded immediate resignation of President Saleh and ban on govt positions for Saleh and family; Saleh vowed to make no more concessions. Security forces 17 March killed 52 protesters in capital Sanaa; series of defections to protestors by ambassadors, lawmakers, provincial governors, tribal leaders followed. Saleh 20 March fired cabinet, though retained as caretaker in interim. 11 military commanders including senior general Ali Moshen 21 March joined protest, promised to protect demonstrators; pro- and anti-govt tanks deployed in Sanaa.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Russia/Japan), Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nicaragua, North Caucasus (Russia), North Korea, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan (Northern), Sudan (South), Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ugan da, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations: Niger

Conflict Risk Alert for April: Côte d'Ivoire, Libya, Nigeria, Syria, Yemen

Conflict Resolution Opportunity for April: Yemen

CrisisWatch N°92 (01 Apr 2011)