Continuing Conflicts that Create Refugees - January 2011

Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in January 2011, according to the latest issue of the International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin CrisisWatch.

Deteriorated Situations: Albania, Egypt, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Sudan

Download the full report: cw90.ashx

Historic events in the Arab world gripped the world's attention in January. In Tunisia weeks of escalating riots and demonstrations over dire economic conditions, corruption and government repression culminated in the ouster of President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali on 14 January. He was replaced by an interim government which announced the country's first free elections since independence.

The direction of Tunisia's transition, and its significance for the region, are not yet clear. But, assuming a successful transition, this could mark the first genuine popular revolt leading to a democratic government in the Arab world.

Inspired by the Tunisian uprising yet fuelled by their own long-standing grievances, hundreds of thousands took to the streets across Egypt towards the end of the month, protesting against authoritarian rule and poor living standards, and calling for President Hosni Mubarak to step down. Over 135 people were killed and more than 2,000 injured during the initial police response. The army was deployed at the end of the month to curb increasing chaos and looting, but vowed not to use force against the protesters.

The situation in Egypt was rapidly evolving as CrisisWatch went to press on 1 February, with a major day of protests ongoing. Much will depend on the actions of the regime and of the army over coming days, and CrisisWatch identifies opportunities for the situation in Egypt to escalate or improve in February.

Events in Tunisia and Egypt have fuelled anti-regime protests elsewhere, including in Yemen, Jordan, Algeria and Sudan.

Albania: 3 people shot dead, over 100 injured during clashes between police and opposition supporters as thousands joined anti-govt protests 21 Jan. Protests called by opposition leader and Tirana mayor Edi Rama after publication of video reportedly showing former deputy PM Ilir Meta and former economy minister Dritan Prifti discussing corrupt deals. State prosecutor Ina Rana issued arrest warrants for 6 senior members of Republican Guard over protester deaths, prompting PM Berisha to accuse her of helping opposition; warrants yet to be enforced. Parliament 23 Jan ordered probe into violence, Berisha called rally attempted coup. EU and U.S. called for calm, dialogue. Estimated 10,000 28 Jan attended peaceful memorial for those killed. Police 28 Jan arrested 3 suspected of planning assassination of Rama.

Egypt: Over 135 killed, more than 2,000 injured in security crackdown on anti-govt protesters. Protests against authoritarian rule, poor living standards began 25 Jan during organised "day of revolt" inspired in part by Tunisian uprising (see Tunisia); tens of thousands protested across country over following days. Most serious violence in Suez, Alexandria and Cairo. Army deployed 28 Jan to control late month unrest and looting, 31 Jan vowed to not use force against protestors; some reports implicating regime in chaos and lawlessness as deliberate ploy. Embattled President Mubarak 29 Jan sacked cabinet, appointed intelligence chief Omar Suleiman Vice President, former air force commander Ahmed Shafik as PM, 31 Jan replaced unpopular interior minister implicated in police violence, but protesters continued calls for Mubarak to step down. Opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei 30 Jan claimed popular and political mandate, including backing of Muslim Brotherhood, to negotiate creation of national unity govt. U.S. President Obama 30 Jan called for "orderly Egyptian-led transition" of govt. Situation rapidly developing as CrisisWatch went to press with major day of protests 1 Feb. Earlier in month, more than 100 people injured during demonstrations over 1 Jan deadly bombing of Coptic Christian church.

North Caucasus (Russia): 24 Jan suicide bomb attack on Moscow airport killed at least 35. Federal Investigative Committee 29 Jan identified 20-year old man from Caucasus as bomber, said attack aimed at foreign citizens. PM Putin rejected negotiations with terrorists, President Medvedev and some senior parliamentarians linked continuing insurgency to social-economic problems. Amid ongoing insurgent attacks in Chechnya, Chechen interior minister Ruslan Alkhanov 18 Jan said 93 militants, including 3 rebel leaders and Arab mercenary, killed in Chechnya in 2010, 202 rebels detained, 40 turned themselves in. Dagestan interior ministry 12 Jan announced Dzhafar Bikmaev, son of chairman of the Spiritual Board of Muslims of Southern Russia Nail Bikmaev, detained 6 Jan, suspected of involvement in "illegal armed formations". Continued deadly militant violence directed at civilians and police in Dagestan, including 26 Jan car bomb killing 4 people in Khasavyurt; several militants killed during clashes with police.

Sudan (Northern) Darfur: saw increased govt confrontation with rebel groups: Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) 20 Jan clashed with rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) on Menawashi-Kidnir road in S Darfur following rebel ambush; 13 rebels, 8 SAF killed. JEM, SLA statement 25 Jan claimed rebels shot down helicopter gunship, many more killed during clashes with SAF near Al Fasher, N Darfur. UN peacekeeping mission UNAMID confirmed SAF 23 Jan arrested 37 during raid of El Fasher Zam Zam IDP camp; said raid violated terms of agreement requiring prior notification to UNAMID of govt action in camps. Former South African President Mbeki, chair of AU High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), 18 Jan called for all rebel groups to join political process on ground. Abyei self-determination referendum to join either North or South did not take place as scheduled 9 Jan due to disagreement over voter eligibility. Unresolved future status of Abyei, including border demarcation, resource-sharing, citizenship issues led to localised deadly clashes 7-9 Jan between rival ethnic Misseriya Arab nomads from North and pro-Southern Dinka Ngok. UN SRSG said although agreement reached 14 Jan succeeded in containing violence, absence of final Abyei settlement risks further trouble. Meanwhile violent suppression of anti-govt protests in Khartoum and elsewhere 29 Jan. Demonstrations in protest at crackdown on political, civic freedoms and rising living costs; commentators say unrest linked to Egypt protests.

Unchanged Situations: Afghanistan Algeria , Armenia , Azerbaijan , Basque Country (Spain) , Belarus , Bolivia , Bosnia , Burma/Myanmar , Burundi , Cameroon , Central African Republic Chad , Colombia, Comoros, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

February 2011 Watchlist
Conflict Risk Alerts: Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt

Conflict Resolution Opportunities: Egypt

Improved Situations: Sudan (South), Tunisia

CrisisWatch:
Summarises briefly developments during the previous month in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed alphabetically by region, providing references and links to more detailed information sources (all references mentioned are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin);

Assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged;

Alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there is a particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict, or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may in fact be both); and

Summarises Crisis Group's reports and briefing papers that have been published in the last month.