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Continuing Conflicts that Create Refugees, November 2010

Nine actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and one improved in November 2010, according to the latest issue of the International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin CrisisWatch

Deteriorated Situations: Burundi - Central African Republic - Côte d'Ivoire - Egypt - Guinea - Haiti - Madagascar - North Korea

Download the full report: Crisis Watch 88

Burundi: Concern as govt crackdown on journalists, opposition, civil society continues to increase, rejuvenated National Liberation Forces (FNL) rebellion armed and active in Democratic Republic of Congo. Following Oct reports that former rebel FNL leader Agathon Rwasa rearming in DRC, FNL early Nov engaged in fighting in Congo's South Kivu province (see DRC). Govt continued to deny reports new rebellion forming. Human Rights Watch 23 Nov released report claiming govt crackdown during and after troubled May-Sept local and national elections including torture, arbitrary arrests. Security forces 22 Nov killed 4 "unidentified" gunmen in 2 separate incidents in south. Gunmen in military uniforms 3 Nov killed FNL local leader Leonard Ndayishimye in Bujumbura Rural province; fourth local opposition leader killed in province since Oct. Parliament 12 Nov approved high-ranking ruling party member Mohamed Rukara as ombudsman with 80% majority, prompting sharp exchange between ruling CNDD-FDD and opposition UPRONA who claim Rukara not qualified for post.

Central African Republic: Rebel Convention of Patriots for Justice and Peace (CPJP) 24 Nov attacked Birao, key town in NE Vakature prefecture, forcing govt troops to retreat; at least 4 soldiers, 2 civilians killed. Rebels occupied town as well as nearby airbase formerly controlled by MINURCAT until mission's 9 Nov withdrawal from area. Supporting CAR govt, Chad 25 Nov conducted airstrikes in area surrounding Birao. Govt 26 Nov claimed army had retaken town, CPJP 30 Nov said Chadian troops forced rebels to evacuate. Election commission (CEI) Oct brought forward to 8 Nov deadline for candidate applications for 23 Jan 2011 presidential election, 4 candidates applied in time, including incumbent President Bozizé and former president Ange-Felix Patassé. After opposition protest, Bozizé asked CEI to reopen process; CEI 18 Nov accepted candidacies of main opposition MLPC leader Martin Ziguélé and RDC's Raymond Nakombo. International Criminal Court (ICC) 22 Nov commenced trial of Jean-Pierre Bemba, former Congolese VP and leader of rebel group turned political party Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC), charged with crimes against humanity and war crimes for alleged failure to prevent his forces' violence against civilians 2002-2003 during Bozizé rebellion against Patassé.

Côte d'Ivoire: Aftermath of presidential run-off poll saw clashes and tensions ahead of announcement of preliminary results; both candidates allege fraud, intimidation. 28 Nov second round between incumbent President Gbagbo and former PM Alassane Ouattara after 31 Oct first round poll produced no clear winner; Gbagbo won 38%, Ouattara 32%. Despite peaceful first round, 19 Nov clashes between rival supporters prompted fears run-off could trigger further violence; at least 3 people killed 27 Nov during clashes in Abidjan between riot police and Ouattara supporters. Curfew imposed 27 Nov; army 30 Nov began re-deployment of some 2,000 troops from northern rebel held areas to Abidjan ahead of announcement of results.

Egypt: 28 Nov parliamentary elections marred by irregularities and reports of scattered violence.. Ruling National Democratic Party won 209 of 221 seats decided in first round; 287 seats to be contested in 5 Dec runoff. None of 130 candidates affiliated to banned opposition Muslim Brotherhood won seats outright in first round; 26 will contest second round. Movement called vote "rigged and invalid". Demonstrations, clashes with police during voting, particularly in Nile Delta and the city of Suez; at least 3 people reported killed. U.S. 30 Nov said it was "disappointed" with conduct citing "worrying" problems with restrictions. Ahead of elections, more than 1,300 Muslim Brotherhood supporters detained, about half released by polls. Security forces 11 Nov arrested at least 25 suspected of belonging to radical Islamic group planning to attack Israeli tourists in Sinai Peninsula. Mob torched 10 homes of Christians 16 Nov in al-Nawahid village after rumours of interfaith relationship. One killed, dozens injured, over 150 arrested 24 Nov after Christians clashed with police in Giza over permission to build church

Guinea: Election-related violence continued, including with active participation of military. After peaceful 7 Nov second round of presidential election, situation deteriorated 15 Nov following election commission (CENI) preliminary results declaring opposition leader Alpha Condé winner with 52.5% of vote; former PM Cellou Diallo took 47.5%. Clashes between security forces and Diallo supporters protesting results in Conakry and elsewhere 15 Nov descended into 3 days of violence, including systematic attacks by security forces on Diallo's ethnic Peul supporters; at least 4 dead, 300 injured. Army Chief Nouhou Thiam 17 Nov declared 8-day state of emergency; Condé played down fears of ethnic conflict, saying divisions exaggerated. International election observers stated voting process "appeared free and fair", but Diallo 14 Nov withdrew his Union des Forces Démocratiques de Guinée (UFDG) party officials from vote count, citing electoral fraud, pre-election violence and intimidation. UN OHCHR 19 Nov expressed "deep concern" at excessive use of force by military post-election. PM Doré 27 Nov announced sacking army deputy chief of staff General Aboubakar Sidiki Camara and closure of borders ahead of Supreme Court's declaration of official results anticipated 2 Dec.

Haiti: 12 of 18 presidential candidates, all tied to opposition, initially denounced "massive fraud" on morning of 28 Nov presidential, legislative elections. Of the 12, all but 2 – who exit polls indicated among leading candidates – later filed for annulment of vote; demonstrations across country as undetermined number unable to vote due to organisational problems. Govt claimed vote went "well", OAS and Caricom observers 29 Nov said vote valid despite "serious irregularities", criticised opposition move; final results expected from 5 Dec. Cholera epidemic worsened: close to 2,000 killed since Oct; 5 of 10 districts affected, first cases confirmed in Port-au-Prince early month. At least 3 civilians killed mid-month in violent anti-MINUSTAH demonstrations triggered by widespread rumours that cholera originated with Nepalese peacekeepers; protests started in Cap-Haitien and Hinche, spread to capital 18 Nov; UN denies rumours. UN 12 Nov warned more than 200,000 at risk of contracting disease, epidemic likely to last for months; requested US$164mn in aid over next year.

Madagascar: Month saw continued attempts by regime to implement unilateral transition, increasing suppression of opposition and attempted military coup. Ahead of 17 Nov referendum on new constitution, seen as attempt to legitimate current regime, 3 main opposition groups organised rallies protesting vote; 21 demonstrators arrested 10 Nov. Referendum saw strong approval for new constitution with 74% in favour, turnout at 53% despite opposition parties' call for boycott, but observers noted several irregularities, opposition called for cancellation of vote. Group of some 20 dissident military officers proclaimed coup on day of referendum, surrendered 20 Nov after 3 days of talks and army assault; soldiers behind coup attempt arrested during military operation. SADC reiterated refusal to recognise referendum held "unilaterally" by Rajoelina govt outside internationally mediated agreements, sent envoy 26 Nov. U.S. announced before referendum would not recognise result. EU foreign affairs chief Ashton refused to send EU observers, joined calls for resumption of Malagasy dialogue, govt of national unity. International community "interference" rejected by Rajoelina in early Nov speech. Hundreds of protesters 20 Nov demonstrated against 20 Dec municipal elections; govt announced postponement of polls for "political and technical reasons".

North Korea: 2 S Korean civilians and 2 marines killed, 20 injured 23 Nov as N Korea fired dozens of artillery shells at Yeonpyeong Island where S Korea was conducting military drills. Strike followed warning hours earlier by Pyongyang to South to halt drills. China called on both sides "to keep calm and exercise restraint"; Russia, Japan, U.S. and UNSG Ban condemned attack. S Korea 25 Nov announced dramatic troop increase on 5 islands close to N Korea. Pyongyang threatened further military action if Seoul continues on "path of military provocation". S Korean defence minister resigned same day, Seoul announced new rules of engagement for future incidents with N Korea. S Korea and U.S. 28 Nov began combined military exercises in Yellow Sea with U.S. aircraft carrier, several warships. S Korea same day fired artillery shell towards south side of DMZ, immediately notified North it was "accidental". China 25 Nov expressed "concern" over combined drills, 28 Nov proposed "emergency consultations" by representatives of 6-party talks. Reports emerged 20 Nov N Korea has built uranium enrichment facility with potential to produce nuclear weapons; N Korea claims facility for civilian nuclear power. Seoul 17 Nov denied N Korea's late Oct request for food and fertiliser aid. Further inter-Korea talks scheduled for 25 Nov on regularising family reunions cancelled.

Western Sahara: Violence broke out 8 Nov following Moroccan security forces raid on protest camp housing some 15,000 outside main town of Laayoune. Morocco reported 13 killed including 11 members of security forces; Polisario Front 9 Nov said more than 36 Saharawis killed, 723 injured and 159 missing. UNSC 16 Nov condemned clashes but declined to authorise formal probe. Moroccan authorities 13 Nov said over 163 people arrested for inciting violence (See Morocco). Third round of UN-brokered peace talks carried out in New York 8-9 Nov, same time as clashes; both sides agreed to meet again Dec.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Comoros, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Russia/Japan), Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe.

DR Congo: Once again this month CrisisWatch describes violence against civilians in North and South Kivu provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The military strategy agreed in 2008 by the Congolese and Rwandan presidents Joseph Kabila and Paul Kagame to defeat militias and reclaim land and resources has failed. Two years of military campaigns have seen the humanitarian situation deteriorate and conflicts over land, inter-ethnic clashes and other incidents of extreme violence proliferate. The ongoing crisis in Congo's eastern provinces risks leading to the disintegration of the Congolese national army and dangerous regional destabilisation.

November saw increased localized violence. UN agencies early Nov said over 650 rapes took place on DRC-Angola border since Sept during Angola's forced expulsion of 7,000 Congolese illegal immigrants, called on both countries to investigate. In North Kivu rebel Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) 16 Nov killed 21 civilians in ambush at Mungazi, Walikale territory. 2,500 displaced in South Kivu as 7 Nov FDLR attack on Kisowa village led to 10 days of fighting against FARDC. Clashes broke out 7 Nov in Fizi territory between FARDC and armed group alliance comprising Force republicaine federaliste (FRF), FDLR and Burundian former rebel National Liberation Forces (FNL). UN peacekeeping mission MONUSCO 23 Nov launched operation "protection shield" aiming to neutralise armed groups, reinforce security for population in Fizi, Minembwe, Uvira areas. UN Panel of Experts 29 Nov published report on violations of arms embargo, stated 700 FNL fighters in South Kivu supported by FDLR; alleged top FARDC commanders including General Gabriel Amisi involved in illegal mineral trade. UNSC passed resolution same day renewing sanctions, extending monitoring group until 30 Nov 2011, took unprecedented decision to support new due diligence guidelines for mining sector. Trial commenced 12 Nov of 8 police officers charged with June 2010 killing of prominent rights advocate Floribert Chebeya. International Criminal Court (ICC) trial commenced 22 Nov for former VP, opposition leader Jean-Pierre Bemba (see CAR); opposition supporters claim trial manipulated for political ends.

Improved Situations:
Niger: 31 Oct referendum saw 90% of voters favour new constitution, clearing way for Jan 2011 elections, return to civilian rule, despite Muslim leaders' 29 Oct calls on Muslims to boycott vote. Main political parties 25 Nov called for correction of contested electoral lists, seen as potentially undermining Jan elections. Head of junta Gen Salou Djibo 5 Nov extended anti-corruption drive, including wave of sackings, arrests. Authorities 10 Nov rejected ECOWAS court ruling ordering release of ex-president Mamadou Tandja, under house arrest in Niamey since Feb when ousted in military coup after amending constitution to extend stay in power

December 2010 Outlook

Conflict Risk Alert: Côte d'Ivoire

Conflict Resolution Opportunity - None

International Crisis Group
Crisis Watch 88, 1st December 2010

Last updated 10 November, 2011