Continuing Conflicts that Create Refugees, July 2010

[ Iraq civilian death toll almost doubles in July      Alert Net 01/08/10

UNHCR concerned about deportations to Mogadishu as fighting continues    UNHCR 30/07/10

Thousands flee Congo clashes, security worsens    IRIN 30/07/10

Nine die in Kashmir protest clashes     BBC News 02/08/10  ]

Two actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and one improved in July 2010, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin CrisisWatch

Deteriorated Situations: Rwanda, Somalia

Download the full report: cw84.pdf

Somalia, militant Islamist group al-Shabaab demonstrated for the first time its capability to spread conflict and bloodshed more widely across the region by launching suicide bomb attacks on Kampala, Uganda that killed at least 85 people. The bombings came after explicit warnings by al-Shabaab that they would take revenge on Uganda and Burundi for their troop contribution to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which supports the transitional government against the Islamist group. Despite threats by al-Shabaab leader Sheikh Abu-Zubeyr of further strikes on Kampala and in Burundi, the two countries maintained their resolve to take on the insurgency and committed to send more troops to AMISOM. In Somalia itself scores of civilians were killed as renewed fighting broke out between al-Shabaab and government forces to the north of Mogadishu.

Rwanda, July saw growing political violence, shrinking of democratic space ahead of 9 August presidential election. Democratic Green Party VP and ex- RPF -turned-critic Andre Kagwa Rwisereka found dead 14 July; Rwisereka's business partner arrested same day for murder; Green Party, rights groups calling for independent inquiry. Editor of independent newspaper Umurabyo and 2 journalists arrested 13 July for article likening President Kagame to Hitler. Tanzanian ICTR defence lawyer Mwaikusa killed 13 July in Dar-Es-Salaam. Electoral campaign for 9 Aug presidential polls started 20 July; only 4 parties admitted: ruling RPF, PL, SDP and PPC. FDU and Democratic Green Party candidates remained barred. Close to 2,000 Rwandan Hutu refugees forcefully repatriated out of Uganda 14 July with Rwandan police participation

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Armenia/Turkey, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Paraguay, Philippines, Serbia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations: Somaliland

Conflict Risk Alerts for August None

Conflict Resolution Opportunities for August None

International Crisis Group